The Outdoor Policy Forecast for 2025

Photo credit: Ivana Cajina

Each year, Outdoor Alliance’s policy team shares its predictions for what will happen in the world of outdoor advocacy in the year ahead.

With a new Congress and a new administration, we will see big shifts to recreation and conservation priorities as well as new leadership of land management agencies and key congressional committees. Predicting what will happen in D.C. is difficult at best, but doing so has enabled the outdoor community to prioritize and win on key outdoor policy issues over the last ten years. Here are the five issues we think will be the biggest focus for recreation, conservation, and public lands advocacy this year: 

New leadership and new priorities.

A new administration and Congress means new leadership at the federal land management agencies and of key congressional committees that Outdoor Alliance works with, including the House Natural Resources Committee and the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The leadership of each of these committees has a significant influence over the policies that Congress pursues on public lands. Outdoor Alliance has strong relationships with several new members of leadership. We have worked closely with Chairman Westerman on the passage of the EXPLORE Act, and have worked with Senator Heinrich and Representative Huffman as long-time conservation and recreation champions. Senator Lee, who will be leading the Senate ENR, has in the past had positions on public lands that have been problematic for the outdoor community. However, as a leader of the committee, we expect that he will strive to represent the committee’s full range of issues and positions on public lands, as well as be responsive to the outdoor recreation community.

A bumpy start to Congress with a government shutdown possible in March.

While Republicans hold the majority in both chambers of Congress and the White House, their majority in the House is quite narrow and it will likely be difficult to build consensus on must-pass issues early in the year, including an appropriations bill to keep the government open and a possible reconciliation bill. A government shutdown in March, when the current continuing resolution (CR) expires is highly possible.

Day one administrative actions will roll back many Biden administrative actions on conservation.

The incoming Trump administration has promised a number of day one executive orders on energy and the environment, many of which will roll back the Biden administration’s actions on conservation. They include prioritizing fossil fuel development and drilling on public lands, reversing protections for Alaska’s Artic National Wildlife Refuge, and withdrawing the U.S. from efforts to conserve 30 percent of our land and water by 2030 to address climate change. We also expect that the administration will try to downsize federal agencies, including the Park Service, Forest Service, and BLM.

Renewed conflicts over keeping public lands public.

This session of Congress has kicked off by including a provision in the House rules to make public land transfers “budget neutral,” essentially allowing the government to give away public lands for free. The Supreme Court just rejected a lawsuit filed by the state of Utah that demanded the federal government turn over federal public lands to the state for disposal. We anticipate that the next year will see a resurgence of efforts to dispose of public lands, an idea that is resoundingly unpopular with Americans but continues to turn up like a bad penny.

Efforts to renew the Legacy Restoration Fund, which was passed during the first Trump administration and expires in September.

During his first term, President Trump signed the Great American Outdoors Act into law, which helped address the maintenance backlog on public lands through the Legacy Restoration Fund. Although the Legacy Restoration Fund has helped these agencies make progress on deferred maintenance needs, federal land managers still face a more than $41 billion backlog with the Fund set to expire at the end of September 2025.

In Congress, the first part of the year will probably be swallowed up by confirmations, appropriations, and reconciliation, and the administration will have work to do in staffing up the agencies. Amidst broader dysfunction in Congress, there remains appetite to pass a delayed Farm Bill, which will require bipartisanship.

Although the makeup and priorities of this Congress will look different, the recent passage of the EXPLORE Act is a reminder that outdoor recreation is a bipartisan priority among Americans and can be for their elected officials across the political spectrum under the right circumstances. Outdoor Alliance will continue to channel the sentiments of the outdoor community and champion protections for the outdoors. And as always, the voices of people who care about the outdoors and conservation continue to matter to lawmakers, especially those who have evinced an interest in public lands. You can be a part of protecting the outdoors this year by signing up to get action alerts where we give you relevant and actionable opportunities to protect the places you love and conserve outdoor experiences.